jac

In my last post, I made the following comment: #

the cable industry is facing a big change. Cable’s current business model looks a lot like broadcast – it’s based on channels, and many content providers pay for their channel. But its future business model is on-demand, and looks a lot like . . . Bittorrent. #

TiVo and Comcast’s ‘On Demand’ service are the obvious examples of non-channel TV. NetFlix can stream to your DVD player. Hulu is an example of non-channel programming that’s not available on TV, but could be. #

For obvious reasons, most TV watchers would probably prefer a world in which they can watch the News Hour at 7:30pm instead of 6:00pm if they want to – and they can, just not on their TV, unless they have a DVR. My basic-cable package has over 100 channels, but I only watch a few. In a world where I can have a DVR or On Demand, a delivery mechanism that mimics rationing the public airwaves is increasingly anachronistic. #

Today, we have a new entrant in the set-top box competition: Google. #

#

If I can get my “Daily Show” fix from Google over my Comcast internet, Comcast’s channel structure is less valuable to me, and I may drop my cable package. Comcast in turn loses (a) ad revenue, (b) my monthly subscription fee, and (c) per-subscriber revenue that some content provider pay to be on Comcast. Expect ‘On Demand’ to evolve to meet the challenge. #

This is going to get interesting. #

#